Will the FDA approve VERVE-102 before Jan 1, 2033?
🗂 Part of event: Will the FDA approve VERVE-102? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 75% chance — likely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 75% right now.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If the FDA approves VERVE-102 for marketing before Jan 1, 2033, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Related markets
Which of these Language Models will beat me at chess?
The field is extremely concentrated on 'any model announced before 2034' at 88%, but the long tail of 22 candidates above 5% suggests bettors see many plausible paths to a 1900-rated human being beaten by a future LLM, with the single biggest recent shift being the 2025-08-15 Business Insider report that OpenAI's o3 swept a chess tournament against xAI's Grok 4, likely boosting confidence in near-term AI chess ability.
52 outcomes
Apple Announces AI Glasses by September 30, 2026
2 outcomes
Will Anthropic release its next Mythos-class model to the public by August 31, 2026?
Yes ≈ 46% chance