Will bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") becomes law before Jan 1, 2027?
🗂 Part of event: Will the cap on gambling loss reduction be repealed? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 17% chance — unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 17% right now.
The 17% odds reflect a stalled legislative effort to reverse the OBBB's gambling tax provision, with no committee action since the Cruz-Miller bill was introduced in March and a tight timeline to enact a change before 2027.
What's driving it
- • No legislative progress since the Cruz-Miller bill was backed by Americans for Tax Reform in March 2026 (ATR, Mar 27), signaling stalled momentum.
- • The gambling tax provision is already law as of the OBBB passage (Forbes, Jan 13), and removing it would require new legislation opposed by revenue hawks.
- • High-profile lobbying by UFC founder (Card Player, May 14) has not yet moved the issue to a committee markup or vote.
The case for YES
- • The Cruz-Miller bill has institutional backing from Americans for Tax Reform (ATR, Mar 27) and could be attached to a year-end tax-extenders or must-pass spending package.
- • Persistent public pressure from gambling industry stakeholders and figures like the UFC founder (Card Player, May 14) keeps the issue alive as a potential eleventh-hour rider.
- • The provision is unpopular with bettors and state gaming regulators, creating a rare bipartisan opportunity to repeal a specific tax hike.
The case for NO
- • The OBBB was a carefully negotiated major tax package; reopening it to remove a revenue-raising provision faces strong opposition from fiscal conservatives who need the revenue.
- • Congress has limited legislative days before the Jan 1, 2027 deadline, and gambling tax reform is not a leadership priority compared to spending bills and other issues.
- • No hearings or markups have been scheduled on the Cruz-Miller bill since its March introduction (ATR, Mar 27), indicating low committee interest and poor odds of standalone passage.
What to watch
- • If Donald Trump publicly endorses nixing the provision (e.g., after UFC lobbying), odds would increase markedly toward Yes.
- • A scheduled House Ways and Means hearing or markup of the Cruz-Miller bill would signal genuine legislative progress and boost Yes odds.
- • Inclusion as a rider in a year-end must-pass bill (e.g., continuing resolution, omnibus, or extenders package) would sharply increase the probability of becoming law before the deadline.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") becomes law before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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