Will there be more than 50 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 27, 2026 to Aug 2, 2026?
🗂 Part of event: Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/27 - 8/2) →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 11% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 11% right now.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 50 from Jul 27, 2026 to Aug 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗