Will the President be impeached before Jan 1, 2027?
🗂 Part of event: Will Trump be impeached? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 4% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 4% right now.
The 3% Yes price for US President impeachment is a baseline-low probability, not a reaction to recent events, as all provided headlines concern the unrelated Philippine Vice President's impeachment trial.
📊 Base rate: Since 1789, only three US presidents have been impeached (Andrew Johnson, Bill Clinton, Donald Trump twice) and none in a single term since 1999, making the historical base rate for any given term under 5%.
What's driving it
- • No headline about the US President appears; the market is anchored by the structural unlikelihood of impeachment rather than any fresh development (headlines are all about the Philippines).
- • The odds have held near 3% without change, implying traders see no credible threat of impeachment proceedings in the current US Congressional landscape (no contradictory headlines).
The case for YES
- • If a new scandal or crime involving the President surfaces and gains bipartisan traction, impeachment could become politically viable before the deadline.
- • A shift in House control to a party willing to pursue articles of impeachment, triggered by a special election or party defection, would raise the Yes probability.
The case for NO
- • The current 97% No odds reflect market consensus that the sitting House majority lacks both the will and the votes to impeach the President.
- • Impeachment is a slow political process, and with no recent committee investigations or public calls from leaders (none in the provided headlines), the path to a successful House vote by Jan 1, 2027, appears blocked.
What to watch
- • Any announcement of a House resolution to investigate or impeach the President: would sharply increase Yes odds (no such catalyst in provided headlines).
- • Release of a critical report from a Special Counsel or Inspector General detailing presidential misconduct: could spark new impeachment momentum, pushing Yes odds up (no such report mentioned).
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If the President of the United States has been impeached before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Related markets
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