Will the President be impeached before Jan 1, 2028?
🗂 Part of event: Will Trump be impeached? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 59% chance — more likely than not.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 59% right now.
The market is pricing a 59% chance of impeachment before 2028, but the recent headlines are almost entirely about the ongoing impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte in the Philippines, not the U.S. President, making the odds appear disconnected from the actual resolution condition.
📊 Base rate: Since the founding of the U.S., only three presidents have been impeached (Andrew Johnson, Bill Clinton, Donald Trump twice), and none have been removed, giving a historical base rate of roughly 5% per presidency for any impeachment.
What's driving it
- • The odds are likely inflated by confusion with the high-profile impeachment trial of Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte, which dominates recent headlines (Rappler, Jul 23).
- • Former Trump White House Special Counsel Ty Cobb publicly called for Congress to impeach President Trump, adding a partisan push (Free Speech For People, Jul 23).
- • No clear catalyst from U.S. political events is evident in the provided headlines, suggesting the 59% may reflect noise or mispricing rather than genuine conviction.
The case for YES
- • If the U.S. House flips to a Democratic majority in the 2026 midterms, they could initiate impeachment proceedings against President Trump, as they did in 2019 and 2021.
- • The ongoing criminal investigations into Trump's actions, including the classified documents case, could provide a legal basis for impeachment articles.
- • Public calls from former administration officials like Ty Cobb may pressure Republican lawmakers to consider impeachment (Free Speech For People, Jul 23).
The case for NO
- • The Republican-controlled House is unlikely to impeach a president of their own party, and the 2026 midterms may not produce a Democratic majority.
- • Impeachment requires a simple House majority but conviction in the Senate needs a two-thirds supermajority, which is nearly impossible given current partisan polarization.
- • The provided headlines focus on a foreign impeachment trial (Philippines), not U.S. politics, indicating no imminent U.S. impeachment threat.
What to watch
- • 2026 midterm election results (Nov 2026): If Democrats win the House, odds for Yes would likely rise; if Republicans retain control, odds would fall.
- • Release of the Mueller-style special counsel report on Trump's conduct (date unknown): A damning report could increase Yes odds.
- • Any formal introduction of impeachment articles in the House (date unknown): Would immediately push odds toward Yes.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If the President of the United States has been impeached before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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