Will the S&P 500 be above 7409.9999 on Jul 27, 2026 at 10am EDT?
🗂 Part of event: S&P price on Jul 27, 2026 at 10am EDT? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 83% chance — likely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 83% right now.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If the S&P 500 index value on Jul 27, 2026 at 10am EDT is above 7409.9999, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Related markets
Crude Oil’s next move: Pump to $120 or Dump to $55?
The market is nearly evenly split between a crash to $55 and a surge to $120, but the small recent shift toward the dump scenario reflects that near-term demand weakness and infrastructure investment are outweighing supply disruption risks for now.
2 outcomes
Next target for the US interest rate (July)
The field is heavily concentrated on a rate hold at 76%, yet the 22% chance of a hike indicates genuine uncertainty, driven by the Fed chair's ambiguous signals and mixed global inflation data that could still tip the decision either way.
4 outcomes
GOLD Price: Pump to $4.900 or Dump to $3.700?
Bearish drivers from falling ETF inflows and rising bond yields currently outweigh bullish signals, keeping the dump scenario ahead despite occasional price surges in some markets.
2 outcomes
World’s largest company at the end of 2026
The field is highly concentrated on Nvidia, but the sum of top-three odds exceeding 100% reflects overlapping bets rather than certainty, and the biggest recent shift is the emergence of SpaceX as a speculative contender, as highlighted by Benzinga on June 16, which could fragment the race if its valuation narrative gains traction.
7 outcomes
Number of FOMC meetings with FED interest rate cuts in the US in 2026
The market is heavily concentrated on zero cuts (72%), reflecting a clear consensus that the Fed under new Chair Warsh will hold rates steady through 2026. The recent Fed minutes (Jul 8) revealing 'inflation concerns grew' and a 'family fight' over rates have solidified the no-cut view, pushing the one-cut option below 25%.
7 outcomes
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
The field is extremely concentrated on a single outcome—zero rate cuts in 2026—with 85% probability, and the biggest recent shift is the market pricing in hikes rather than cuts, as economists stick to their cut call while markets price in hikes (Bloomberg.com, Jul 24) and the Fed faces a rate hike debate (The South Shore Press, Jul 25).
2 outcomes