Who will IPO before 2027?
🗂 Part of event: Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 72% chance — likely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 72% right now.
Despite recent trust and chip-supply concerns, the market still heavily expects an Anthropic IPO before 2027, likely betting that its new Opus 5 model and capital needs will force a public listing.
What's driving it
- • Anthropic's rollout of Opus 5 (Reuters, Jul 24) signals product momentum, reinforcing the narrative that the company is scaling toward an IPO.
- • The report that Anthropic asked SK chairman for chip supplies (Fortune, Jul 25) suggests heavy infrastructure investment, which could either delay an IPO (if self-building) or accelerate it (if needing public capital).
- • The Business Insider piece (Jul 25) on Anthropic and Meta being 'on the defensive' over trust issues introduces a headwind, potentially lowering IPO odds from even higher levels.
The case for YES
- • Anthropic just launched a major new model (Opus 5), which typically precedes an IPO as companies seek to maximize valuation before going public.
- • The company's request for its own chip supplies (Fortune, Jul 25) indicates a capital-intensive strategy that may require public-market funding to sustain.
- • With AI regulation still uncertain, Anthropic may want to go public before stricter rules (e.g., on border closures, NYT Jul 25) limit its growth or valuation.
The case for NO
- • The trust deficit highlighted by Business Insider (Jul 25) could deter institutional investors, making an IPO less attractive or feasible before 2027.
- • Anthropic's push to make its own chips (Fortune, Jul 25) suggests a long-term vertical integration play that might delay an IPO until the chip strategy matures.
- • The Silicon Valley split over closing borders to Chinese AI (NYT, Jul 25) creates regulatory uncertainty that could push IPO plans beyond the 2027 deadline.
What to watch
- • If Anthropic announces a formal partnership with a chip manufacturer (e.g., SK Hynix) to secure supply, odds would likely increase (Yes direction) as it signals readiness to scale.
- • A public trust-building initiative or third-party audit (responding to Business Insider's criticism) could boost odds (Yes direction) by addressing investor concerns.
- • Any official S-1 filing with the SEC would immediately resolve the market to Yes, but if the company instead announces a large private funding round, odds would drop (No direction) as it delays the IPO.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If Anthropic confirms an IPO before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Related markets
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