Will the total vote count for all participants in Montana 02 House General Election be above 300000?
🗂 Part of event: Montana 02 House General Election: voter turnout →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 21% chance — unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 21% right now.
The market prices a low probability of exceeding 300,000 votes in Montana's 2nd district, consistent with the 2022 midterm total of ~287,000, but any shift in turnout expectations hinges on local race dynamics and voter registration data, none of which are addressed by the provided headlines.
📊 Base rate: In the 2022 midterm election for Montana's 2nd congressional district, total votes cast were approximately 287,000, below the 300,000 threshold.
What's driving it
- • No recent headlines directly address Montana 02 turnout; the 21% Yes odds likely reflect the historical base rate of 287,000 votes in the 2022 midterm.
- • The June 8 headline about over 300,000 early votes in South Carolina primaries suggests high turnout is possible elsewhere, but that is a different state and election type, not a direct driver.
The case for YES
- • If the 2026 race becomes highly competitive, enthusiasm could push turnout above the 2022 level, as seen in other districts with tight races.
- • Montana's population growth since 2022 may increase the number of registered voters, making a 300,000+ total plausible even with similar turnout rates.
The case for NO
- • The 2022 total of ~287,000 indicates a 4.5% increase is needed to reach 300,000, and midterm elections typically see lower turnout than presidential years.
- • The district's rural and geographically large nature can suppress turnout, and no evidence suggests a major shift in voter registration or mobilization.
What to watch
- • Release of official voter registration numbers for the district in September 2026: if significantly higher than 2022, Yes odds would likely rise.
- • Early voting turnout data in October 2026: high early vote numbers would increase the probability of exceeding 300,000 total votes.
- • Any polling showing a very close race or major campaign spending could boost turnout expectations, moving odds toward Yes.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If the total vote count for all participants in Montana 02 House General Election is above 300000, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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