LeBron James Next Team
🗂 Part of event: LeBron James Next Team →Tap a candidate to show/hide its line · double-tap to isolate
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Philadelphia at about a 99% chance — almost certain.
The field has collapsed to near-certainty for Philadelphia after LeBron James signed with the 76ers, as confirmed by multiple outlets on July 25, 2026, making the race effectively resolved.
📊 Base rate: In high-profile free-agent decisions, the eventual destination is typically known within days of the announcement, so odds above 90% are common once a signing is reported.
What's driving it
- • CBS News reported on July 25 that LeBron James signed with the Sixers, ending speculation and driving Philadelphia's odds to 99%.
- • The New York Times noted on July 25 that LeBron will not return to Cleveland, eliminating a key alternative and further concentrating odds on Philadelphia.
- • ESPN reported on July 25 that LeBron rode an 'emotional roller coaster' before his decision, indicating the process was uncertain until the final moment, but the outcome is now clear.
Why the front-runners lead
- • Philadelphia's odds surged to 99% because LeBron James officially signed with the 76ers, as confirmed by CBS News and USA Today on July 25.
- • The Athletic's inside account on July 25 revealed that pretty much everyone was completely in the dark until the decision, meaning no other team had a credible late push.
Why it's still open
- • No other team can overtake Philadelphia now because LeBron has already signed, as reported by multiple outlets on July 25.
- • The only way the field reopens is if the signing is voided or reversed, which has no basis in any headline or credible report.
What to watch
- • No future events are likely to reshape the race, as the signing is complete and confirmed by major news sources on July 25.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
LeBron James
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Related markets
3M Open Winner
The field is unusually concentrated for a PGA Tour event, with the top three candidates commanding 76% of the odds, driven almost entirely by the absence of the British Open winner Ryan Fox, who is not listed among the 66 candidates and whose post-Open travel and rest headlines (AP News, Jul 24; Reuters, Jul 24) confirm he is not playing this week, leaving the door open for a lesser-known contender to capitalize on the depleted field.
66 outcomes
Ben Kohles vs The Field
Despite Ben Kohles holding a two-shot lead after the first round of the 3M Open, the field is priced at 92% because Kohles has a history of late-round collapses (most recently hitting into water on 18 to lose on Jul 17) and the tournament still has 54 holes with many top players like Scottie Scheffler only three back (Field Level Media, Jul 24). The single biggest recent shift is the market's skepticism of Kohles' lead, as his odds remain low despite the first-round advantage.
2 outcomes
Tim Tszyu vs Errol Spence
The field is a two-man race with Errol Spence at 64% and Tim Tszyu at 38%, showing high concentration but a slight 1-point shift toward Spence in the last 24 hours as fight day arrives (Forbes, Jul 26). The biggest recent shift is the narrowing gap from earlier weeks, driven by live fight coverage and predictions favoring Spence's experience (CBS Sports, Jul 25).
2 outcomes
Mohamed Salah will join PSG by September 1, 2026
Liverpool are actively blocking a PSG move for Mohamed Salah by pursuing his replacement and even bidding for a PSG target, making a transfer highly unlikely despite persistent rumors.
Yes ≈ 5% chance
NBA: LeBron James Next Team
The field has collapsed to a single candidate at 100% after a flurry of reports on July 24, 2026, confirming LeBron James chose the Philadelphia 76ers, making the market effectively resolved and all other candidates irrelevant.
36 outcomes
Will George Russell win the F1 Drivers Championship 2026?
George Russell's title hopes suffered a severe blow with a first-lap crash at the Belgian Grand Prix, while rookie Kimi Antonelli extended his lead with a fourth win, making the 14% Yes odds a long shot that reflects a rapidly shrinking path to the championship.
Yes ≈ 10% chance