Will Trump pardon between 25 and 49 people before Jan 1, 2027?
🗂 Part of event: How many people will Trump pardon in 2026? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 8% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 8% right now.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If the President pardons, commutes the sentence of, or gives reprieve to between 25 and 49 persons after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗