Will the margin of victory for David Crowley in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 3% and 6%?
🗂 Part of event: Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary margin of victory? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 1% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 1% right now.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If the margin of victory for David Crowley in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary falls within 3% to 6%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Related markets
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
The field is virtually nonexistent: only two candidates register at 1% each, and no one has broken 5%, making this the most open Democratic nomination race in modern history. The single biggest recent shift is the DNC's decision to put South Carolina first in the 2028 primary calendar (Axios, Jul 25), which could reshape candidate strategies and favor a different type of contender.
2 outcomes
Fed Decision in July?
The field is overwhelmingly concentrated on 'No change' at 80%, with a 24-hour +1pt drift, but the recent MarketWatch headline reveals deliberate Fed communication opacity—Chair Warsh is keeping markets in the dark, which paradoxically reinforces the no-change baseline as the safe anchor while leaving room for a surprise 25bps hike (19%) if incoming data forces clarity. The single biggest recent shift is the slight uptick in 'No change' odds, likely reflecting traders pricing in the Fed's strategic ambiguity as a signal of no urgent action.
5 outcomes
Next General Election - Most Seats
The field is moderately concentrated with Labour leading at 36%, but Reform UK and Conservative are close; the biggest recent shift is Reform UK overtaking the Conservatives for second place, as seen in the stated odds, though no headline directly explains this.
9 outcomes
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
The Republican nomination market is essentially a blank slate with no declared candidate, as the combined odds of the two listed figures (Byron Donalds at 1%, Mike Pence at 0%) barely exceed 1%, indicating the race is wide open for any major figure to enter and become the immediate front-runner.
2 outcomes
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
The field is moderately concentrated with Newsom and Ocasio-Cortez combining for 66%, but the 21% for both Buttigieg and Harris and a 23% 'Other' share show significant latent openness; the biggest recent shift is the DNC's decision to put South Carolina first in 2028 (NYT, Jul 24), which could reshape candidate strategies and delegate math.
8 outcomes
2028 Presidential Election Winner
The field is unusually fragmented with no candidate above 18%, and the top three sum to just 41%, reflecting a wide-open race where the biggest recent shift is the absence of a clear front-runner despite ongoing midterm elections and controversies over election integrity. The 2026 primary results (NBC News, Jul 23) are reshaping candidate viability, but no single contender has consolidated support yet.
40 outcomes