Number of rate cuts in 2026?
🗂 Part of event: Number of rate cuts in 2026? →Tap a candidate to show/hide its line · double-tap to isolate
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Exactly 0 cuts at about a 82% chance — likely.
The field is extremely concentrated on zero cuts at 83%, with the single biggest recent shift being a surge in oil prices and strong jobless claims data that have effectively killed market expectations for any rate reduction in 2026.
📊 Base rate: Since 1990, the Fed has cut rates in roughly 40% of calendar years, but the current odds of zero cuts (83%) are far above that historical average, reflecting an unusually hawkish outlook.
What's driving it
- • Surging oil prices on July 24, with forecasts of global inflation reaching 4.5% in Q4, have crushed hopes for rate cuts by raising cost-push inflation risks (富途牛牛, Jul 24).
- • US jobless claims falling to their lowest level since September 2022 on July 23 signals a tight labor market that gives the Fed no urgency to ease (Crypto Briefing, Jul 23).
- • Fed Chair Warsh explicitly stating no immediate rate cuts on July 23 due to inflation concerns directly reinforces the zero-cut scenario (Crypto Briefing, Jul 23).
Why the front-runners lead
- • Zero cuts leads at 83% because the combination of rising oil prices, strong employment, and explicit Fed guidance has created a consensus that inflation will stay above target through 2026.
- • Exactly one cut trails at 10% because even a single reduction would require a significant economic downturn or a sharp drop in oil prices, neither of which is currently visible in the data.
- • The top two candidates sum to 93%, reflecting a market that sees only two plausible outcomes: no cuts or a single token cut, with multiple cuts effectively ruled out by the hawkish data flow.
Why it's still open
- • The field could shift if oil prices reverse sharply, as a collapse in energy costs would reduce inflation pressure and open the door for at least one cut.
- • A sudden spike in unemployment or a financial crisis could force the Fed to pivot, but no such trigger is present in recent headlines.
- • Exactly 2 or more cuts would require a major recession or a systemic shock, which is not priced in and would need a catalyst like a credit crunch or a global demand collapse.
What to watch
- • August 2026 CPI release: If inflation prints below 3%, it could boost odds of one cut; if above 4%, it would solidify zero cuts.
- • September 2026 FOMC meeting: Any dovish language in the statement or dot plot would increase the probability of a cut, while hawkish hold would reinforce zero.
- • Q4 2026 oil price trajectory: A sustained drop below $70 per barrel would reduce inflation fears and raise the chance of a cut, while prices above $100 would lock in zero.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
In 2026
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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