Will Scottie Scheffler win the grand slam before 2028?
🗂 Part of event: Will Scottie Scheffler win the grand slam before 2028? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 4% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 4% right now.
The market heavily doubts Scottie Scheffler will win all four majors in a single year before 2028, reflecting the extreme rarity of a grand slam in golf, even for a top player.
📊 Base rate: Only five golfers have ever won the grand slam in a single year, and none since 1930, giving a historical prior well below 1% per season.
What's driving it
- • The 2026 major season ended without a Scheffler grand slam, reinforcing the difficulty (GOLF.com, Jul 21).
- • A Substack analysis highlighted the financial and reputational cost of a major-less season, suggesting Scheffler's form may not guarantee dominance (Neil’s Substack, Jul 15).
- • Rory McIlroy's retirement comments, citing Scheffler as a benchmark, indirectly underscore the sustained excellence required but also the rarity of such a feat (Yahoo Sports, Jul 9).
The case for YES
- • Scheffler is the world No. 1 and has already won multiple majors, showing he can win on the biggest stages.
- • He came close to a career grand slam in 2026, indicating he can contend at all four venues (NYT, Jun 17).
- • The 2027 and 2028 seasons offer two more attempts, and his game is still young and improving.
The case for NO
- • No golfer has won a single-year grand slam since 1930, making it one of the hardest feats in sports.
- • Scheffler went major-less in 2026, showing even elite form doesn't guarantee wins (GOLF.com, Jul 21).
- • The pressure of a grand slam bid often disrupts performance, as seen in past near-misses by other stars.
What to watch
- • Scheffler's performance at the 2027 Masters (April 2027) — a win would boost Yes odds significantly, while a missed cut would lower them.
- • The 2027 PGA Championship (May 2027) — another major win would keep the grand slam alive, while a loss would reduce chances.
- • Any injury or form slump reported before the 2027 season (e.g., early 2027) — negative news would push odds further toward No.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If Scottie Scheffler wins the golf grand slam (winning the Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and the Open Championship) in a single year before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Related markets
3M Open Winner
Jackson Koivun commands an unusually high 54% probability for a PGA Tour event, but the 1-point dip in the last 24 hours hints at shifting money, and recent headlines focus entirely on the British Open victory by Ryan Fox (AP News, Jul 24), offering no clear catalyst for that movement or for Koivun's lead itself.
66 outcomes
Ben Kohles vs The Field
Despite Ben Kohles holding a two-shot lead after the first round of the 3M Open, the field is priced at 92% because Kohles has a history of late-round collapses (most recently hitting into water on 18 to lose on Jul 17) and the tournament still has 54 holes with many top players like Scottie Scheffler only three back (Field Level Media, Jul 24). The single biggest recent shift is the market's skepticism of Kohles' lead, as his odds remain low despite the first-round advantage.
2 outcomes
Mohamed Salah will join PSG by September 1, 2026
Liverpool are actively blocking a PSG move for Mohamed Salah by pursuing his replacement and even bidding for a PSG target, making a transfer highly unlikely despite persistent rumors.
Yes ≈ 5% chance
Will George Russell win the F1 Drivers Championship 2026?
George Russell's title hopes suffered a severe blow with a first-lap crash at the Belgian Grand Prix, while rookie Kimi Antonelli extended his lead with a fourth win, making the 14% Yes odds a long shot that reflects a rapidly shrinking path to the championship.
Yes ≈ 10% chance
Mackenzie Hughes vs The Field
The field is extremely open, with The Field at 98% reflecting the reality that in any given PGA Tour event, an individual golfer like Mackenzie Hughes faces overwhelming odds against a deep pool of competitors, and the recent headlines show Hughes is a fringe contender rather than a dominant force.
2 outcomes