How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?
🗂 Part of event: How many launches will SpaceX have in July? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 3% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 3% right now.
The market's 5% odds reflect that SpaceX would need an unprecedented launch cadence in the final days of July to exceed 14 launches, and recent engine failures on Starship reduce the chances of a surge.
📊 Base rate: SpaceX's highest monthly launch count in 2025 was 13, and its average monthly rate has been around 10–12, making a 15-launch month a significant outlier.
What's driving it
- • A July 17 Starship launch abort due to multiple engine failures (Florida Today) signaled technical setbacks that could disrupt high-frequency launch plans.
- • The 5% Yes price implies traders believe the remaining days of July (as of the 25th) are insufficient to launch the 5+ needed to reach 15, given typical launch intervals.
- • A July 13 article about an upcoming California launch (Ventura County Star) suggests launches are occurring but not at the breakneck pace needed for 15 in a month.
The case for YES
- • If SpaceX has already completed 10–12 launches by July 25 and has a dense manifest of Falcon 9 flights (e.g., Starlink, rideshare) scheduled for the final days, it could hit 15.
- • The company's long-term goal of 10,000 annual launches (Reuters, May 20) indicates a push for higher cadence, and a record month would demonstrate progress.
- • SpaceX's ability to launch multiple Starlink missions per week (Yahoo Finance, June 27) could, in theory, sustain a rapid pace if pad availability and weather cooperate.
The case for NO
- • With only about 6 days left in July 2026, SpaceX would need to average more than 2 launches per day, which is far beyond their historical maximum of 4 in a single day.
- • The Starship abort on July 17 (Florida Today) may ground that vehicle, removing a potential high-cadence contributor and diverting resources to troubleshooting.
- • Even in its busiest months, SpaceX has never exceeded 14 launches, so the 95% No odds reflect a strong empirical ceiling.
What to watch
- • Any announcement of a large batch of Starlink launches squeezed into the final days of July would push the odds Yes; a cancellation or delay would push No.
- • FAA approval or denial of additional launch licenses for the remaining days could move the market, with approvals making Yes more likely.
- • A public statement from SpaceX about July launch totals or a successful rapid-fire test flight could shift sentiment, but both are unlikely given the current pace.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If SpaceX has more than 14 launches in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Related markets
How Much Will Discord Be Worth on Day 1?
The field is highly fragmented with three roughly equal candidates, but the most notable recent shift is the emergence of a 'Less than $20B' option at 40%, likely reflecting skepticism about Discord's ability to command a premium valuation after a travel-focused article (Mshale, Jul 12) highlighted a service outage, undermining confidence in its reliability and growth narrative.
3 outcomes
When will Starship flight 14 happen?
The field is extremely front-loaded: the top candidate (before 2027-04-01) commands 95% odds, and all ten candidates above 5% stack into the next nine months, reflecting a market consensus that Flight 14 is imminent but not immediate. The largest recent shift is the collapse of near-term dates after the July 17 abort, when the 'before 2026-10-01' candidate dropped from ~80% to 71% following a second launch abort.
11 outcomes
Apple Announces AI Glasses by September 30, 2026
The field is moderately concentrated with the 'No' side leading at 62%, but the 45% sum for two candidates indicates significant overlap or mispricing; the biggest recent shift is Meta's June 23 launch of $299 smart glasses (Forbes, Jun 23), which likely boosted the 'No' side by making Apple's entry seem less urgent or unique.
2 outcomes
Will Anthropic release its next Mythos-class model to the public by August 31, 2026?
Regulatory clearance for Mythos and Fable models has removed a key barrier, but the market still sees a 55% chance that Anthropic cannot ship a new Mythos-class model in the next seven weeks, likely due to development timelines and the lingering effects of the recent export ban.
Yes ≈ 46% chance
Which of these Language Models will beat me at chess?
The field is extremely concentrated on 'any model announced before 2034' at 88%, but the long tail of 22 candidates above 5% suggests bettors see many plausible paths to a 1900-rated human being beaten by a future LLM, with the single biggest recent shift being the 2025-08-15 Business Insider report that OpenAI's o3 swept a chess tournament against xAI's Grok 4, likely boosting confidence in near-term AI chess ability.
52 outcomes
Companies to go public in 2026
The field is moderately concentrated with two strong leaders—SpaceX and Anthropic—but a long tail of eight candidates above 5% makes it less a binary race than a bet on whether the two favorites both IPO or only one. The biggest recent shift is the emergence of congressional insider trading reports around SpaceX (CNBC, Jul 3), which may have boosted confidence that the IPO is real and imminent.
8 outcomes