Top AI model this week

✨ Multiple news outlets report that AI models have achieved a perfect score at the 2026 IMO, making the 97% odds a near-certainty that the event has already occurred, with the market awaiting final formal confirmation.

Yes ≈ 97% chance

✨ The field is moderately concentrated with the 'No' side leading at 62%, but the 45% sum for two candidates indicates significant overlap or mispricing; the biggest recent shift is Meta's June 23 launch of $299 smart glasses (Forbes, Jun 23), which likely boosted the 'No' side by making Apple's entry seem less urgent or unique.

✨ The field is highly concentrated on the near-term horizon, with the top three candidates all betting on a model announced before 2034, 2033, or 2032, collectively summing to 251% — but the real story is the steep drop-off after 2030, suggesting traders see a narrow window for a breakthrough, not a long march.

✨ Regulatory clearance for Mythos and Fable models has removed a key barrier, but the market still sees a 55% chance that Anthropic cannot ship a new Mythos-class model in the next seven weeks, likely due to development timelines and the lingering effects of the recent export ban.

Yes ≈ 46% chance

✨ The field is moderately concentrated with two strong leaders—SpaceX and Anthropic—but a long tail of eight candidates above 5% makes it less a binary race than a bet on whether the two favorites both IPO or only one. The biggest recent shift is the emergence of congressional insider trading reports around SpaceX (CNBC, Jul 3), which may have boosted confidence that the IPO is real and imminent.

✨ The field is extremely concentrated on a year-end release (Dec 31 at 69%), with the only recent movement being a secondary deadline (Sep 30) gaining ground, likely because the White House has asked OpenAI to limit the GPT-5.6 model in 2026 (Memeburn, Jul 3), implying regulatory pressure could delay a full GPT-6 beyond the summer.