Will US trade deficit for 2026 be below 45‎ billion?

🗂 Part of event: US trade deficit for 2026? →

2¢Yes

2% 0 pts all-time

Yes

2¢

98¢

💡 What the odds say

The market puts this at about a 2% chance — almost no chance.

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No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 2% right now.

StatusOpen

ClosesFeb 28, 2027 · 7mo

Total volume$824

Open interest$668

ListedFeb 24, 2026

Source

Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.

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How it resolves

Regulated exchangeSettled by Kalshi (CFTC-regulated)

Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.

Closes Feb 28, 2027 (7mo)

Resolution criteria

If US trade deficit for 2026 is below 45‎ billion, then the market resolves to Yes.

ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.

View the official rules on Kalshi ↗