Will Donald Trump leave office before January 20, 2029?
🗂 Part of event: Donald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death) →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 27% chance — unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 27% right now.
The market assigns a 73% probability that Trump completes his term, reflecting a lack of credible early-exit scenarios despite some recent administrative turbulence.
📊 Base rate: Since 1900, only three U.S. presidents have left office before their term ended (two assassinations, one resignation), implying a historical base rate of roughly 10% for early departure.
What's driving it
- • The slight 1-point decline in Yes probability over 24 hours suggests no new catalyst for early exit; the market remains anchored to the baseline assumption of term completion.
- • Recent headlines focus on administrative actions (firing election commissioners, tweaking leave rules) and a symbolic Air Force One dispute, none of which signal an imminent departure.
- • The market appears to treat the Air Force One and security stories as routine, not as precursors to a resignation or removal.
The case for YES
- • Trump could leave office early if he resigns amid legal pressure or health issues, though no such signs are present.
- • Impeachment and conviction by a Democratic-controlled Congress remains a low-probability but possible path.
- • A 25th Amendment invocation by the Cabinet could remove him if he becomes incapacitated, but no evidence of that.
The case for NO
- • Trump has served nearly two years of his term without major crises, suggesting he will complete the remaining 2.5 years.
- • The Republican Party controls enough of Congress to block any impeachment effort, reducing the likelihood of removal.
- • No credible scandal or health emergency has emerged in recent headlines to alter the default assumption of term completion.
What to watch
- • Any formal announcement of impeachment proceedings by the House (would increase Yes probability).
- • A major ruling by the Supreme Court or a federal court on executive immunity or disqualification (would increase Yes if adverse to Trump).
- • A public health disclosure or hospitalization (would increase Yes probability).
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If Donald Trump leaves office before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Related markets
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