Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?
🗂 Part of event: Will Trump be impeached and removed from office? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 19% chance — unlikely.
Across venues
· updated 2mPredictPal ConsensusThe same question trades on 2 venues — prices range 19%–67%. This blend is weighted by each venue’s market depth.
The two prediction markets collectively imply about a 45% chance of impeachment, but they disagree sharply: Polymarket gives 67% while Kalshi gives 19%, likely due to differences in their user bases or liquidity.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 19% right now.
Despite a 19% Yes price, the market is pricing in a much lower chance of Trump's removal than Polymarket's 66% figure for any impeachment during his term, reflecting the extreme difficulty of securing a Senate conviction even if the House impeaches.
📊 Base rate: Since the founding, only two U.S. presidents have been impeached by the House and none have been convicted and removed by the Senate, making the historical base rate for removal effectively 0%.
What's driving it
- • The market odds are anchored by the structural hurdle of a two-thirds Senate majority for conviction, which remains extremely high given the current partisan split (no clear catalyst in recent headlines).
- • Recent headlines about Senate vacancies—like Kentucky's process to replace McConnell (WVXU, Jul 21) and Darline Graham filling Lindsey Graham's term (AP News, Jul 14)—highlight that Senate composition can shift, but no specific pro-conviction majority has emerged.
- • A Polymarket report (Yellow.com, Jul 15) showing 66% odds for impeachment during Trump's term contrasts sharply with Kalshi's 19% for removal, suggesting traders see impeachment as likely but conviction as far less probable.
The case for YES
- • If Democrats win a supermajority in the 2026 midterm elections and control the Senate, they could potentially muster the 67 votes needed for conviction on charges like abuse of power or obstruction.
- • A major scandal or criminal indictment directly tied to Trump's actions in office could shift public opinion and pressure Republican senators to vote for conviction, as seen in the rapid political fallout from past impeachments.
The case for NO
- • The Republican Party currently holds enough Senate seats to block a two-thirds majority for conviction, and no recent headline indicates a wave of defections.
- • Historical precedent shows no president has ever been removed by the Senate, and the bar for conviction is intentionally high, requiring bipartisan consensus that has not materialized.
- • Trump retains strong support among Republican voters, making it politically risky for GOP senators to vote for conviction, especially with no clear evidence of a high-crime misdemeanor in recent news.
What to watch
- • The 2026 midterm elections (Nov 3, 2026) could dramatically shift Senate control; a Democratic sweep would increase Yes odds, while a Republican hold would lower them.
- • Any release of a special counsel report or congressional investigation findings implicating Trump in illegal acts (e.g., Ukraine or January 6) would likely spike Yes odds.
- • A public statement or action by Trump, such as his recent comment on ending Russia's war (RBC-Ukraine, Jul 15), could either distract from impeachment or provide new grounds for charges, but the direction is unclear without more context.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If the President of the United States has been impeached and convicted by the U.S. Senate before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Related markets
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