Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.9% in July?
🗂 Part of event: Unemployment in July →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 97% chance — almost certain.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 97% right now.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 3.9% in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Related markets
Crude Oil’s next move: Pump to $120 or Dump to $55?
The market is nearly evenly split between a crash to $55 and a surge to $120, but the small recent shift toward the dump scenario reflects that near-term demand weakness and infrastructure investment are outweighing supply disruption risks for now.
2 outcomes
GOLD Price: Pump to $4.900 or Dump to $3.700?
Despite safe-haven demand from the Middle East conflict, gold is trading below $4,000 and facing a bearish 'death cross' technical pattern, pushing the market strongly toward a dump to $3,700 (71% odds) rather than a pump to $4,900.
2 outcomes
World’s largest company at the end of 2026
The field is highly concentrated on Nvidia, but the sum of top-three odds exceeding 100% reflects overlapping bets rather than certainty, and the biggest recent shift is the emergence of SpaceX as a speculative contender, as highlighted by Benzinga on June 16, which could fragment the race if its valuation narrative gains traction.
7 outcomes
Next target for the US interest rate (July)
The field is heavily concentrated on a rate hold at 76%, yet the 22% chance of a hike indicates genuine uncertainty, driven by the Fed chair's ambiguous signals and mixed global inflation data that could still tip the decision either way.
4 outcomes
Number of FOMC meetings with FED interest rate cuts in the US in 2026
The market is heavily concentrated on zero cuts (72%), reflecting a clear consensus that the Fed under new Chair Warsh will hold rates steady through 2026. The recent Fed minutes (Jul 8) revealing 'inflation concerns grew' and a 'family fight' over rates have solidified the no-cut view, pushing the one-cut option below 25%.
7 outcomes