Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.20% on Jul 31, 2026?
🗂 Part of event: 2Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 90% chance — very likely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 90% right now.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.20% on Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Related markets
Next target for the US interest rate (July)
4 outcomes