Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $140.01 by Dec 31, 2026?
🗂 Part of event: How high will oil (WTI) get by Dec 31, 2026? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 20% chance — unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 20% right now.
The market heavily discounts a $140+ oil spike by end-2026 despite recent geopolitical jolts, because the current WTI price (~$72) is far from that threshold and the macro backdrop includes a recent 20% monthly crash that suggests ample spare capacity and demand weakness.
📊 Base rate: Since 1983, WTI front-month has settled above $140 only once (in 2008, briefly), giving a historical frequency well under 5% over any given 18-month window.
What's driving it
- • The July 8 Reuters report that Trump called the Iran peace deal 'over' and crude jumped on risk-off sentiment has likely nudged the Yes odds up slightly, as it raises the probability of a supply-disruption spike.
- • The July 7 attack on a merchant ship near the Strait of Hormuz, which pushed NY crude to a two-week high above $72 (finance.biggo.com), reinforces the geopolitical risk premium but still leaves prices far from $140.
- • The May 29 MarketWatch report of a nearly 20% monthly drop in oil prices—the biggest since 2020—anchors the No case by highlighting demand fears and a bearish trend that would require an extraordinary reversal to reach $140.
The case for YES
- • A full-blown military conflict involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz could disrupt a significant share of global oil supply, potentially driving prices past $140 as seen in the 2008 spike.
- • If the Iran peace deal collapse (Reuters, Jul 8) escalates into direct hostilities or a blockade, the market could panic-bid crude above $140 within weeks.
- • A simultaneous supply shock (e.g., Hormuz closure) and a rapid economic recovery or Fed pivot could create the perfect storm for a spike above $140.
The case for NO
- • Current WTI is around $72 (Robinhood, Jul 10), requiring a near-doubling in less than six months—historically unprecedented without a major war or supply crisis already in full swing.
- • The May 29 MarketWatch report of a 20% monthly crash shows underlying demand weakness and ample supply, making a sustained rally to $140 unlikely without a massive new catalyst.
- • Even with geopolitical tensions, the market has spare OPEC+ capacity and US shale could ramp up quickly, capping any spike well below $140.
What to watch
- • Any confirmed closure of the Strait of Hormuz or a major Iranian attack on Saudi oil infrastructure would sharply increase Yes odds (likely direction: Yes).
- • A US-Iran ceasefire or diplomatic breakthrough that eases supply fears would reduce Yes odds (likely direction: No).
- • The next OPEC+ meeting (expected late 2026) could signal production cuts that support prices, but would need to be extreme to approach $140 (likely direction: modestly Yes).
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If ICE reports that the maximum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is above $140 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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