Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $150.01 by Dec 31, 2026?

What's driving it

• • On July 21, crude futures briefly hit their highest since mid-June on Middle East supply fears, reinforcing the upward pressure from ongoing geopolitical risk (finance.biggo.com, Jul 21).
• • On July 8, Trump's declaration that the Iran peace deal is 'over' triggered a risk-off move with crude jumping, directly elevating the odds of a supply disruption that could push prices toward $150 (Reuters, Jul 8).
• • On May 18, oil prices rose 3% to a two-week high on Iran war supply concerns, showing that the Iran risk has been a persistent driver for weeks (Reuters, May 18).
• • The current odds at 19% are elevated relative to the historical base rate, suggesting the market is pricing in a non-trivial chance of a severe supply shock, but not a baseline expectation.

What to watch

• • Any official U.S. or Iranian military action in the Persian Gulf before year-end would sharply increase odds of a Yes resolution, likely pushing the market above 50%.
• • OPEC+ meetings or emergency production announcements in late 2026 could reduce odds if they signal increased supply, moving the market toward 10% or lower.
• • Monthly U.S. jobs and inflation data through December 2026 could shift odds moderately: stronger-than-expected demand data would nudge odds up, while recession signals would push them down.