Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $160.01 by Dec 31, 2026?
🗂 Part of event: How high will oil (WTI) get by Dec 31, 2026? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 15% chance — unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 15% right now.
The 15% Yes odds signal that the market sees the recent Iran-driven oil spike as temporary and insufficient to reach the $160 threshold, betting instead on a capped upside due to spare capacity and demand concerns.
📊 Base rate: Since 1983, WTI front-month settlement prices have exceeded $160 on only a handful of days (in 2008), implying a historical base rate well under 5% for such an extreme price level.
What's driving it
- • Geopolitical tensions from Iran supply fears caused crude futures to spike in July 2026 (Reuters, Jul 8), but the current price remains far below $160, keeping Yes odds low.
- • The market's low 15% Yes odds reflect skepticism that the spike will be sustained, as seen in the choppy trade and subsequent lower settlements (WSJ, May 13).
- • Recent headlines show oil hitting a 'highest since mid-June' (finance.biggo.com, Jul 21), indicating that the price is still well below the $160 threshold, reinforcing the No case.
The case for YES
- • If the Iran conflict escalates to a full-scale blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, oil supply could be severely disrupted, pushing prices toward $160.
- • A coordinated OPEC+ production cut in response to falling demand or geopolitical uncertainty could also drive prices higher.
The case for NO
- • The current price, even after recent spikes, is still far from $160, and the market sees strong resistance at lower levels due to spare capacity and demand destruction.
- • Global economic slowdown fears (indicated by risk-off sentiment in stocks, Reuters Jul 8) could reduce oil demand, preventing prices from reaching such extremes.
- • The historical precedent shows that oil spikes above $150 are rare and short-lived, making it unlikely to sustain a settlement above $160.
What to watch
- • If the US Department of Energy announces a release of Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in August 2026, it could lower prices, decreasing Yes odds.
- • Any confirmation of a new Iran nuclear deal or ceasefire in the Middle East would reduce supply fears, pushing Yes odds down.
- • A surprise OPEC+ production cut at their next meeting (likely in September 2026) would increase Yes odds.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If ICE reports that the maximum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is above $160 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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