When will Rocket Lab Neutron launch for the first time?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Before 2027-07-01 at about a 74% chance — likely.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Neutron is a partially reusable medium-lift two-stage rocket being developed by Rocket Lab. It has been scheduled to launch in 2025, but might slip to the further date. This market will be resolved when Neutron rocket launches for the first time. For the purposes of this question, "launch" should involve the countdown reaching 0 and the rocket leaving the pad. I.e. Astra sideways launch would count, but an explosion right on the pad wouldn't. I do not bet on my own markets. If there is sufficient interest in this market, I'll add further markets about other milestones for Rocket Lab rockets.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
Apple Announces AI Glasses by September 30, 2026
2 outcomes
Will Anthropic release its next Mythos-class model to the public by August 31, 2026?
Yes ≈ 46% chance
Which of these Language Models will beat me at chess?
The field is extremely concentrated on 'any model announced before 2034' at 88%, but the long tail of 22 candidates above 5% suggests bettors see many plausible paths to a 1900-rated human being beaten by a future LLM, with the single biggest recent shift being the 2025-08-15 Business Insider report that OpenAI's o3 swept a chess tournament against xAI's Grok 4, likely boosting confidence in near-term AI chess ability.
52 outcomes