What will be the Republican-Democrat balance of US Supreme Court justices by the 2029 inauguration?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: 6-3 (balance as of 2024) at about a 73% chance — likely.
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Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
What will be the Republican-Democrat balance of US Supreme Court justices by the 2029 inauguration? Resolves based on the number of Republican elected justices to Democratic elected justices as of January 20, 2029 (even if the inauguration does not happen on that date). I will create more options (from the "Other" category) if there will likely not be nine justices as of that date. If a justice "changes party" in a notable way (for example, makes a public announcement, or consistently votes with justices from the other party on partisan decisions), they will be considered to have swapped parties. Resolves N/A if the US Supreme Court no longer exists.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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