What Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110) at about a 100% chance — almost certain.
The field is extremely concentrated at 100% for eight outcomes, reflecting a market that has already priced in many of Trump's second-term actions as near-certainties, but the recent headlines suggest a growing narrative of legal and institutional pushback that could challenge these odds.
📊 Base rate: In prediction markets for political events, outcomes that are seen as highly likely (above 90%) often have a historical base rate of around 70-80% actually occurring, suggesting current odds may be slightly overconfident.
What's driving it
- • The 100% odds on Trump canceling Biden's AI executive order and creating major tariffs are likely driven by Trump's consistent campaign rhetoric and early executive actions, though no specific recent headline confirms new moves (Indy100, Jul 13).
- • The 100% on a major war in Asia and a second Muslim ban may reflect market anticipation of Trump's foreign policy and immigration stances, but recent headlines focus on domestic legal challenges rather than new policy announcements (CNN, Jun 22).
- • The 100% on Trump pardoning January 6 rioters and having a falling out with Musk are priced as certain, possibly due to Trump's past statements and Musk's volatile public role, but no recent headline directly updates these probabilities.
- • The 100% on an RFK dead animal scandal and Trump's crypto windfall are niche but priced as inevitable, with Politico's report on $1.4B in crypto earnings (Jul 1) reinforcing the financial angle but not directly moving these specific odds.
Why the front-runners lead
- • Trump's cancellation of Biden's AI executive order is seen as a near-certain first-day action, consistent with his pattern of reversing predecessor policies and his base's anti-regulation stance.
- • Tariffs of 10% or more on a major country are highly likely given Trump's proven willingness to use trade barriers, as seen in his first term, and the lack of congressional resistance.
- • The January 6 pardons are priced at 100% because Trump has explicitly promised them and faces no legal barrier to issuing pardons for federal crimes.
Why it's still open
- • The field is open for outcomes like a major war in Asia or a second Muslim ban, which could be derailed by diplomatic pushback, legal challenges, or shifting public opinion, as suggested by the 77 court rulings criticizing Trump's second term (CNN, Jun 22).
- • The falling out with Musk is not guaranteed; Musk's advisory role could evolve or be redefined, and the market may be overestimating the likelihood of a public break given both figures' transactional relationships.
- • The RFK dead animal scandal is a niche event that could fail to materialize if no new evidence emerges, and the 100% odds may reflect market momentum rather than concrete evidence.
What to watch
- • Upcoming court rulings on Trump's executive orders, such as those on AI or immigration, could shift odds downward if judges block them, as seen in the 77 critical rulings (CNN, Jun 22).
- • A major geopolitical event, like a conflict in Asia or a trade negotiation breakdown, could either confirm or disprove the 'major war' outcome, moving odds based on actual developments.
- • Trump's next public statement or social media post about Musk or RFK could directly impact the 100% odds on those scandals, either confirming or reducing their likelihood.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Add your own answers! Unless otherwise specified: "Trump bans" refers to Trump or the US government, but actions, like "Trump says X" refers only to Trump. I expect the intent to be pretty clear. (If not, I reserve the right to modify the phrasing to make it clearer; ping me if you find an option unclear) "Trump" refers to the person that was president of the US in 2017-2021. If something is not known to have happened, unless otherwise specified, it would resolve NO. For example, the option "Trump gets COVID" resolves NO unless it is announced or sufficiently confirmed, despite the possibility that he gets covid without announcing it. The intent here is to resolve YES when the balance of evidence clearly indicates the option prediction happened. "Trump's Second Term" is the time between Jan 20 2025 and Jan 20 2029, so long as the US continues to exist and Republicans remain in power in the White House. Trump dying doesn't end Trump's Second Term for the purposes of this market. I reserve the right to cancel any option that doesn't seem relevant / unconnected to trump / etc. If a question is ambiguous, please ping the question creator for clarification. If they don't clarify within a few days, ping me and I'll decide how it's disambiguated. Consensus of credible reporting will be used for this market's resolution. I am not following Trump's every move so I'd very much appreciate @s when options need to be resolved. If I don't reply within a day, you can keep repinging me, or dming me if that's a recurring issue. I try to see creator pings but may miss some. Update 2025-17-01 (PST): - Clarification on "Trump discloses aliens are real": Refers to Trump stating that aliens have interacted with or visited Earth. Does not include aliens located 5 trillion light years away outside the observable universe. (AI summary of creator comment) Update 2025-17-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Trump discloses Aliens are real refers to scenarios where: Aliens have interacted with humans Alien technology has been found Aliens have visited Earth Does not include aliens located 5 trillion light years away outside the observable universe. Update 2025-02-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator The option will resolve YES only if Trump stops being acting president after he has officially become president and before his term ends. In-ceremony irregularities, such as brief procedural moments at the start of the term, do not trigger a YES resolution. This clarification emphasizes the spirit of the market, focusing on the scenario where Trump ceases to be acting president during his term, after already assuming the office. Update 2025-05-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the answer option 'Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA': This will be interpreted based on an existential quantification (i.e., "there exists"). The option will resolve YES if displaying the trans pride flag becomes illegal in at least one jurisdiction within the USA. It does not require a universal ban across all parts of the USA. Update 2025-05-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the answer option 'Trump discloses Aliens are real': Public support by Trump for the theory of panspermia, or similar theories suggesting life on Earth originated from extraterrestrial microbial life (e.g., alien bacteria on a comet), will not by itself be sufficient for this option to resolve YES. For a YES resolution, the disclosure must meet the established criteria, such as aliens interacting with humans, the discovery of alien technology, or aliens visiting Earth. Update 2025-05-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the answer option 'Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)': For this option to resolve YES, Trump's statement does not necessarily need to be unequivocally definitive or phrased with absolute, explicit certainty. The context and manner of how Trump makes the statement will be considered when determining if a disclosure has occurred. Update 2025-05-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the answer option 'Will Trump not be acting president before his term is over, for any reason?': The creator has clarified that the intended meaning, and proposed new phrasing for the option, is: "Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over." This means the option resolves YES if another individual (e.g., the Vice President) formally assumes the powers of the presidency as Acting President (for example, under the 25th Amendment) during Trump's term. Update 2025-05-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the answer option 'Trump extends his term past 4 years': This will resolve YES if both of the following conditions are met: Donald Trump is still president on January 22, 2029 (or a similar date clearly after his 2025-2029 term would normally end). This continued presidency is without an election having taken place that elected him for the period beyond January 20, 2029. Update 2025-05-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated they will resolve the option 'Musk becomes head of DOGE' to N/A. See the linked comment for the creator's detailed reasoning regarding the ambiguity of the option. Update 2025-05-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding options with asymmetric ambiguity: If an option is structured such that a YES resolution is likely to be clear, but a NO resolution is likely to be ambiguous (potentially resulting in an N/A resolution), the creator views this as potentially creating an undesirable bias in the market's pricing. In such situations, to maintain fairness, the creator may prefer to resolve the option as N/A or consider rephrasing/recreating the question to avoid such ambiguity-driven bias. Update 2025-06-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the answer option 'Trump does a calculation in his head that involves at least 2 numbers each with at least 2 non-zero digits': The creator has proposed to edit this option to require that Trump voices a calculation. The calculation must still involve at least two numbers, each with at least two non-zero digits. This shifts the criterion from an unobservable internal thought to an externally verifiable action (e.g., spoken or written). Update 2025-06-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the answer option about Trump performing a calculation (which the creator previously proposed to change from 'in his head' to 'Trump voices a calculation'): The creator has affirmed that for a YES resolution, this voiced calculation should be, for example, spoken by Trump or posted by him on social media (e.g., X/Truth Social). Importantly, the calculation must not be read by Trump directly from a teleprompter. Update 2025-06-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the answer option 'Trump voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits': For this option to resolve YES, the calculation voiced by Trump must be mathematically accurate. The stated result of the calculation must be correct. Update 2025-06-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the answer option 'Second Muslim ban': A YES resolution does not require the new travel ban to cover the exact same countries as the original ban. The option will resolve YES if there is clear, credible reporting (e.g., from journalists, advocacy groups) that draws a direct link between the new ban and the original 'Muslim ban'. Update 2025-10-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the answer option 'The Senate invokes the "nuclear option" to bypass cloture after Sept '25': The creator has edited this option to add the temporal qualifier 'after Sept '25' (after September 2025). This change was made because the nuclear option was already invoked on September 10, 2025. The option now requires a subsequent invocation of the nuclear option after September 2025 to resolve YES. Update 2025-11-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the answer option '2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart': This option will be resolved from NivlacM's point of view (the answer submitter's local Walmart), not from the market creator's perspective.