Will there be 10 or More Nuclear-Armed States by 2035 depending on a Trump win?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Trump wins and 10+ nuclear-armed states at about a 62% chance — more likely than not.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Inspired this post about joint markets, here is a variant of this conditional Metaculus question. Resolves according to Metaculus. See the fine-print there. Trumps chances: @/duck/will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-pres Currently, nine states possess nuclear weapons: Russia, US, China, France, UK, Pakistan, India, Israel, and North Korea. The most recent entrant into that nuclear club was North Korea, in 2006. Close date is currently taken from Metaculus but will almost certainly be extended.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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