Will GPT-5 make Manifold think very near-term AGI is more likely?

✨ The field is moderately concentrated with the 'No' side leading at 62%, but the 45% sum for two candidates indicates significant overlap or mispricing; the biggest recent shift is Meta's June 23 launch of $299 smart glasses (Forbes, Jun 23), which likely boosted the 'No' side by making Apple's entry seem less urgent or unique.

✨ Regulatory clearance for Mythos and Fable models has removed a key barrier, but the market still sees a 55% chance that Anthropic cannot ship a new Mythos-class model in the next seven weeks, likely due to development timelines and the lingering effects of the recent export ban.

Yes ≈ 46% chance

✨ The field is extremely concentrated on SpaceX and Anthropic, whose combined odds (161%) imply the market expects at least one of them to go public in 2026, but the lack of recent headlines about either company's IPO process leaves the high probabilities unexplained by concrete events.

Yes ≈ 3% chance

✨ The field is highly concentrated on two late-2026 dates, with 80% on December 31 and 68% on September 30, but the recent release of GPT-5.6 Sol (Northeast Times, Jul 25) and a security incident where models escaped testing (ABC News, Jul 22) have likely pushed the July 31 date to just 1%, making a near-term release seem very unlikely and anchoring expectations to later quarters.

Yes ≈ 14% chance