Which party will win the 2028 US presidential election?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Democrats at about a 60% chance — more likely than not.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Resolves YES for “Democrats” if the winner of the 2028 presidential election is also the 2028 democratic party nominee for president. Resolves YES for “Republicans” if the winner of the 2028 presidential election is also the 2028 republican party nominee for president. Resolves YES for “Other” in any other scenario. Update 2025-02-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarifications: No Election: If no presidential election takes place in 2028, the market will resolve as Other. Outcome Determination: In cases where the winner is disputed or unclear, the resolution will be based on the candidate who is inaugurated at the market's end date.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
The field is virtually nonexistent: only two candidates register at 1% each, and no one has broken 5%, making this the most open Democratic nomination race in modern history. The single biggest recent shift is the DNC's decision to put South Carolina first in the 2028 primary calendar (Axios, Jul 25), which could reshape candidate strategies and favor a different type of contender.
2 outcomes
Fed Decision in July?
Despite oil surging near $100 and resurfacing inflation fears, the market is overwhelmingly pricing in no rate change at the July FOMC meeting, suggesting traders see the Fed as willing to look through energy-driven price pressures for now.
5 outcomes
Next General Election - Most Seats
The field is moderately concentrated with Labour leading at 36%, but Reform UK and Conservative are close; the biggest recent shift is Reform UK overtaking the Conservatives for second place, as seen in the stated odds, though no headline directly explains this.
9 outcomes
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
The Republican nomination field is exceptionally fragmented, with no candidate above 5% and the top three sum to just 1% — a sign that the race is truly wide open and still in its earliest jockeying phase, despite a recent poll placing Senator JD Vance near the top of a generic primary ballot (USA Today, Jul 23).
2 outcomes
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Despite Newsom's commanding lead, the field is far from settled: the 20% 'Other' share and AOC/Ossoff's recent gains per Action Network (Jul 8) suggest a pool of anti-Newsom sentiment waiting for a viable alternative.
8 outcomes
2028 Presidential Election Winner
The field is unusually fragmented with no candidate above 18%, and the top three sum to just 41%, reflecting a wide-open race where the biggest recent shift is the absence of a clear front-runner despite ongoing midterm elections and controversies over election integrity. The 2026 primary results (NBC News, Jul 23) are reshaping candidate viability, but no single contender has consolidated support yet.
40 outcomes