Who will be guests on the Dwarkesh Patel podcast in 2026?

100¢Elon Musk

Price history builds as this market trades.

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Elon Musk100%

David Reich100%

Jensen Huang100%

Dylan Patel (as guest)100%

Dean Spears42%

Dwarkesh Patel (see note)41%

55 more1060%

💡 What the odds say

Most likely: Elon Musk at about a 100% chance — almost certain.

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StatusOpen

ClosesDec 31, 2026 · 5mo

Total volumeⱮ18.7K

Liquidity

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How it resolves

Creator-resolvedSettled by the market's creator

Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.

Closes Dec 31, 2026 (5mo)

Resolution criteria

Resolves YES to every guest who appears on the podcast. The episode must not merely be recorded but also be released to the public, officially, not via a leak, for it to count. Any submissions made after the podcast episode is released to the public will be N/A'd. Dwarkesh Patel option note Will resolve YES if there is an episode where he is interviewed, like the AMA episode from 25th March 2025 Update 2026-02-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Collaborative episodes (where Dwarkesh collaborates with another podcast/creator) will count for resolution purposes if the episode appears on the Dwarkesh podcast feed and YouTube channel.

ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.

View the official rules on Manifold ↗