Reform UK won five seats in the 2024 General Election. When will the first by-election be called in one of those seats?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: No by-election held in these seats before the next UK General Election at about a 75% chance — likely.
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Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Market resolves when either of these is true: A by-election is called in Clacton-on-Sea, Boston and Skegness, South Basildon and East Thurrock, Great Yarmouth, or Ashfield, for whatever reason. A UK General Election is called.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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