How many net Fed rate cuts in 2026?

53¢Other

Price history builds as this market trades.

No price history yet

Other53%

0 cuts (Target 3.50-3.75)34%

1 cut (Target 3.25-3.50)9%

2 cuts (Target 3.00-3.25)2%

3 cuts (Target 2.75-3.00)1%

4 cuts (Target 2.50-2.75)1%

💡 What the odds say

Most likely: Other at about a 53% chance — a coin toss.

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StatusOpen

ClosesDec 31, 2026 · 5mo

Total volumeⱮ10.8K

Liquidity

Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.

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How it resolves

Creator-resolvedSettled by the market's creator

Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.

Closes Dec 31, 2026 (5mo)

Resolution criteria

Resolution criteria The market resolves based on the number of 25-basis-point net rate cuts the Federal Reserve implements during 2026 calendar year. Each 25 bp cut counts as one, a 50 bp cut fomc counts as 2. If they cut the rate and raise it back then it will be considered as 0 net rate cuts. Resolution will be determined by official FOMC meeting announcements and the Federal Reserve's policy statements. Check the Federal Reserve's official website for meeting dates and decisions.

ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.

View the official rules on Manifold ↗