Who will be on the 2026 Time Person Of The Year Shortlist?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Pope Leo XIV at about a 86% chance — very likely.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Resolves according to the shortlist released by TIME. If no shortlist is released, everything resolves no. Must be explicitly named as the headline. Eg. If ‘The Iranian People’ was on the shortlist, Iranians like Reza Pahlavi wouldn’t count. Even if they named him in the blurb about Iranian people. (Excludes Artemis|| , individual astronauts would resolve yes if Artemis || is named) However if it was ‘Reza Pahlavi and the Iranian people’ Reza would resolve yes. Suggest answers below. Update 2026-04-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the Artemis II crew is listed on the shortlist as a group (e.g. 'Artemis 2'), all individual crew members resolve YES. Individual crew members have been added as separate answer options.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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