Will strong AI raise or lower real interest rates?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Raise by >5% at about a 62% chance — more likely than not.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Measured with the 10-yr real interest rate as calculated by the St-Louis Fed: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/REAINTRATREARAT10Y Baseline: Average of the 10-yr real interest rate. I will average the rate over the year preceding the release of Strong AI. I will then average the same rate, starting one year after the release of said strong AI. This resolves at T + 2 yr after the release of strong AI. Will extend indefinitely. A release is defined as SAI being deployed for purposes other than research. I'm adding this criterion to account for scenarios where OpenAI/MSFT decides to run agents in-house and capture the profit for themselves without releasing access to the public, for example.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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