Who will be the next Conservative Party Leader?
31¢Other
Price history builds as this market trades.
No price history yet
Other31%
Katie Lam20%
James Cleverly20%
Tom Tugendhat9%
Mel Stride4%
Robert Jenrick4%
11 more12%
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Other at about a 31% chance.
StatusOpen
ClosesDec 31, 2035 · 9y
Total volumeⱮ18.3K
Liquidity
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Creator-resolvedSettled by the market's creator
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Closes Dec 31, 2035 (9y)
Resolution criteria
Resolves to the next full (not interim) leader of the UK's Conservative and Union Party, taking office after Kemi Badenoch.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗