Who will be the Republican nominee for president in 2028?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: JD Vance at about a 42% chance.
The field is moderately concentrated at the top, but the 15% 'Other' share and absence of declared candidates keep the race looser than the leaderboard suggests; the biggest recent shift is the July 2 NYT poll showing JD Vance at 42%, cementing his front-runner status for now.
📊 Base rate: Since 1976, every incumbent vice president who sought the presidency has won his party’s nomination (Bush 1988, Gore 2000), boosting Vance's current odds.
What's driving it
- • The July 2 NYT poll (2028 Republican Presidential Primary: Latest Polls) shows Vance at 42%, reinforcing his status as the heir apparent with a strong base.
- • President Trump's June 30 announcement of a Republican midterm convention in Dallas (PBS) signals his ongoing influence, which could benefit or constrain various candidates.
- • AOC's July 1 response to Vance calling her a leading presidential candidate (USA Today) highlights Vance's cross-party visibility and potential to expand his coalition.
Why the front-runners lead
- • JD Vance as sitting vice president inherits Trump’s loyal base and has the highest name recognition and institutional support, as reflected in the NYT poll lead.
- • Marco Rubio maintains a solid 24% share by appealing to establishment and Florida voters, with a strong fundraising network from previous campaigns.
- • The top three sum to 82%, indicating early coalescing around familiar names and limited room for long-shot candidates in the near term.
Why it's still open
- • The 15% 'Other' category is large and includes potential entrants like Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump Jr., or even a fresh face, any of whom could consolidate anti-Vance sentiment.
- • The 2028 convention is over two years away, and major events like the 2026 midterm elections (Nov 3, 2026) will reshape the field by elevating winners and sidelining losers.
- • Donald Trump Sr. at 2% could change the dynamic if he decides to run again, splitting the base or altering alliances.
What to watch
- • Republican midterm convention in Dallas, September 2026 (PBS) — early networking and speech-making that can boost or deflate candidates not yet in the race.
- • 2026 midterm elections (November 3, 2026) — outcomes will provide a wave or headwind for party figures; strong performers may jump in, weak incumbents may drop out.
- • First 2028 primary debate (expected in 2027) — will clarify who is viable and expose weaknesses, likely compressing the field.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Resolves to 100% whoever is chosen as the nominee at the Republican National Convention in 2028 Resolves to "None" if no one is nominated or if their is no convention. If for some reason the convention is postponed then this market resolves to whoever is nominated in the postponed convention. Unless the "postponed" convention takes place in or after 2032, in which case it resolves "None" Remember to bet for "Other". Any shares held in "Other" give you free shares for answers subsequently added
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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