Who will win the 2028 US presidential election?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: J.D. Vance at about a 18% chance.
The field is unusually diffuse for 26 months out, with the top three candidates holding just 47% of the probability and 47 candidates listed, reflecting a lack of clear front-runner consolidation. The single biggest recent shift is the Democratic Party's move to keep South Carolina as the first 2028 primary state (The Guardian, Jul 24), which boosts candidates with strong African American support like Gavin Newsom or Kamala Harris and could reshape delegate math.
📊 Base rate: In post-WWII elections, the incumbent party's nominee has won about 55% of the time, but with no incumbent running in 2028, the historical prior for an open-seat race is roughly 50-50 between the two major parties.
What's driving it
- • J.D. Vance's 18% lead likely reflects his position as a top Trump-aligned figure and his 2022 Senate win in Ohio, though no recent headline directly explains a surge. Marco Rubio's 15% is sustained by his national name recognition and appeal to both establishment and conservative wings, but no clear catalyst appears in recent headlines. Gavin Newsom's 13% is buoyed by the Democratic primary calendar change favoring South Carolina (The Guardian, Jul 24), which could benefit his coalition-building with black voters. The 'Other' category at 14% signals that nearly half the probability is scattered among 41 candidates, indicating no consensus alternative has emerged.
- • The Democratic nomination of Troy Jackson for a must-win Maine Senate race (NBC News, Jul 25) may indirectly affect presidential odds by signaling party strategy in a swing state, but it does not directly move any presidential candidate's odds.
- • Kamala Harris at 4% remains low despite her national profile, likely because her 2024 campaign struggles still weigh on her electability perception, and no recent headline boosts her.
Why the front-runners lead
- • J.D. Vance leads because he has consolidated the pro-Trump base and has a clear fundraising network from his 2022 Senate race, giving him early money and organizational advantages. Marco Rubio is a strong second because he appeals to both the GOP establishment and Hispanic voters in Florida, a key swing state, and has a national donor network from his 2016 run. Gavin Newsom leads Democrats because he has high name recognition, a California fundraising base, and the new South Carolina primary order (The Guardian, Jul 24) could help him build early momentum with black voters.
Why it's still open
- • The field is open because 53% of the probability is spread across 44 other candidates, meaning any single candidate could consolidate that 'Other' bloc with a strong early primary win or endorsement. John Ossoff at 7% could overtake by winning the Georgia primary and proving he can hold a swing state, but he lacks national name recognition. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 6% could surge if she wins the progressive lane and the Democratic primary shifts left, but she faces resistance from moderates.
What to watch
- • The first Democratic primary debate, expected in late 2027, will likely consolidate support among top performers and eliminate low-polling candidates, potentially boosting Newsom or Harris if they perform well. The 2027 Iowa caucuses (if held) could reshape the field by giving a surprise winner like Josh Shapiro or John Ossoff early momentum, though the South Carolina shift reduces Iowa's influence. A major endorsement from a party figure like Barack Obama or Donald Trump could instantly consolidate a candidate's base, with Trump's backing likely decisive for the GOP nominee.
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Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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