During which 5 year period will the world get fusion?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: 2041-2045 at about a 39% chance.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Using https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-the-future-of-fusion as a guide, where he suggests: "By ‘get fusion’, I mean Q > 5 for a steady state experiment. If it is not steady state (e.g. inertial confinement fusion), then I also require a shot frequency of at least 1/second. Anyone selling fusion power to the grid also counts, even if they don't meet these technical requirements." Market will resolve to 'never' if we reach 2055 without fusion meeting the above requirements.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
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