First confirmed intelligent aliens will be
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Extinct (e.g. forerunners, ring builders, old ones) at about a 25% chance.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
[tweet] No unicellular algae-like goop 'cuz it's boring, jellyfish is pushing it. Cat people and Star Trek forehead-of-the-week rolled under humanoid. 2023-09-16 added Winged, Extinct, Composite since Other is dominant Taking fun suggestions in comments.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
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