When will a single Falcon 9 booster fly 40 times
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Before Jan 1 2030 at about a 90% chance — very likely.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
In April 2024, B1062 became the first falcon booster to reach 20 flights. The company says it is currently qualifying them to fly 40 times each. Coincidentally(?), if a booster flies 40 times, it will also break Discovery's record 39 flights, though the comparison of a shuttle orbiter and first stage of a more traditional rocket is difficult. Market resolves after a successful flight to orbit. Landing is not necessary. Local time at launch site.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
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