Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2029?
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 56% chance — more likely than not.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 56% right now.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
When will Starship flight 14 happen?
The field is extremely front-loaded: the top candidate (before 2027-04-01) commands 95% odds, and all ten candidates above 5% stack into the next nine months, reflecting a market consensus that Flight 14 is imminent but not immediate. The largest recent shift is the collapse of near-term dates after the July 17 abort, when the 'before 2026-10-01' candidate dropped from ~80% to 71% following a second launch abort.
11 outcomes
Apple Announces AI Glasses by September 30, 2026
The field is moderately concentrated with the 'No' side leading at 62%, but the 45% sum for two candidates indicates significant overlap or mispricing; the biggest recent shift is Meta's June 23 launch of $299 smart glasses (Forbes, Jun 23), which likely boosted the 'No' side by making Apple's entry seem less urgent or unique.
2 outcomes
Which of these Language Models will beat me at chess?
The field is extremely concentrated on 'any model announced before 2034' at 88%, but the long tail of 22 candidates above 5% suggests bettors see many plausible paths to a 1900-rated human being beaten by a future LLM, with the single biggest recent shift being the 2025-08-15 Business Insider report that OpenAI's o3 swept a chess tournament against xAI's Grok 4, likely boosting confidence in near-term AI chess ability.
52 outcomes
Will Anthropic release its next Mythos-class model to the public by August 31, 2026?
Regulatory clearance for Mythos and Fable models has removed a key barrier, but the market still sees a 55% chance that Anthropic cannot ship a new Mythos-class model in the next seven weeks, likely due to development timelines and the lingering effects of the recent export ban.
Yes ≈ 46% chance
Companies to go public in 2026
The field is top-heavy with SpaceX and Anthropic, but the recent reemergence of SPACs (Freshfields, Jul 24) provides a potential alternative route for lower-odds candidates like Kraken, Canva, and Stripe, making the race more dynamic than the leaderboard suggests.
8 outcomes
GPT-6 released by ...?
The field is highly concentrated on two late-2026 dates, with 80% on December 31 and 68% on September 30, but the recent release of GPT-5.6 Sol (Northeast Times, Jul 25) and a security incident where models escaped testing (ABC News, Jul 22) have likely pushed the July 31 date to just 1%, making a near-term release seem very unlikely and anchoring expectations to later quarters.
3 outcomes