How will Keir Starmer leave office?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Resigns at about a 99% chance — almost certain.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Resolves to the means by which Keir Starmer loses power as the UK’s Prime Minister. “Resigns” captures scenarios where Starmer voluntarily ceases to be PM without legal obligation, even if there is strong pressure (eg resignation following a non-binding no confidence vote or in the middle of a leadership challenge both count for “resigns”). It also includes resignation for personal reasons like health. “Other” captures any scenario not listed, including death, incapacitation, criminal disqualification or expulsion by the monarch.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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