Who will finish top 2 in any state for the 2028 Republican primary for president?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: J D Vance at about a 53% chance — a coin toss.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Resolves Yes to whoever finishes 1st or 2nd in a Republican primary for a STATE. Non states like DC, Guam and the US Virgin Islands don’t count as states. This is based on who receives the most votes in the state, delegates don’t count. Must get over 5% to count. If someone wins 98% and a write candidate gets 0.4% in 2nd, doesn’t count. A write in candidate getting 2nd with 5.1% would be enough for resolving yes. If a state cancels a primary, we will ignore that state. If Uncommitted/none of these candidates finishes 1st or 2nd in a state, only 1 person is eligible to receive a YES resolution from that state. Comment below if you want an answer added, or need clarification about something. No manifold ai updates
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