Will a Republican win the US presidential election in 2024?/Will a Republican win the US presidential election in 2028?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: A Republican wins in 2024 and a Republican does not win in 2028 at about a 59% chance — more likely than not.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Resolves to the correct combination of these events. This is an experiment to see how much people think the whitehouse is a "metronome" that is inclined to swing from one party to the other.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗