Joe Biden's Presidential Memoir: How many copies will be sold in the first year?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: 1M-1.5M at about a 18% chance.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Market resolves to the total number of U.S. units sold (print + e‑book + audio if publisher reports; otherwise NPD BookScan print only) in the first 365 days after the memoir’s official on‑sale date. Resolution source hierarchy: 1. Hachette (publisher) press release or SEC filing. 2. Credible mainstream outlet quoting publisher figures. 3. Credible mainstream outlet quoting NPD BookScan. If no figure is publicly available by [on‑sale + 18 months], market resolves N/A. [tweet]
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗