Which party will win the Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Ontario New Democratic Party at about a 70% chance — likely.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Resolution criteria This market resolves to the winner of the Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election, triggered by Doly Begum's resignation to run for the federal seat. The candidate who wins the most votes will be declared the winner. Resolution will be determined by the official results published by Elections Ontario at https://www.elections.on.ca/en.html. If there is a need for a recount, this market will not resolve until the results of the recount are official. I (and only I) can and might add new answers, but a bet on "other" automatically includes any answers added after the bet. I will only add answers that look particularly promising. Close date is indicative only. I will try to resolve promptly after an official winner is declared by Elections Ontario. I will not trade in this market.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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