White Lotus Season 4 [Mega independent]
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: The season takes place in Europe at about a 99% chance — almost certain.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
What will happen in the fourth season of the HBO series White Lotus?
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
Are people in the US getting dumber?
The 70% odds that Americans are getting dumber reflect a media-driven narrative linking AI tool use to cognitive decline, but the evidence is mostly anecdotal and lacks rigorous longitudinal data, making the market more a bet on cultural perception than on measurable intelligence.
Yes ≈ 70% chance
Will the documentary, "Instadocs: The prediction market games" be available on Netflix in July?
Yes ≈ 96% chance
Highest box office-grossing movie in 2026 (US/Canada Domestic)
Despite The Odyssey's record-breaking $84M+ second weekend (Deadline, Jul 25), the market overwhelmingly favors Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 67%, suggesting a belief that franchise familiarity and pre-release hype will outweigh current box office surprises.
7 outcomes
Spider-Man: Brand New Day Tomatometer 92%+ on July 31, 2026.
The market expects Spider-Man: Brand New Day to fall short of a 92% Tomatometer score, with the 'Below 92%' option commanding 69% despite recent positive buzz from cast interviews suggesting a strong fan reception; the single biggest recent shift is a 1-point drop in the Yes (≥92%) probability over 24 hours, potentially reflecting skepticism after mixed reviews for other Marvel projects like 'The Punisher: One Last Kill' (Rotten Tomatoes, May 12).
2 outcomes
Oscar winner: Best Picture
The field is highly concentrated with The Odyssey at 56% and Dune: Part Three at 16%, but recent headlines question The Odyssey's ability to sweep, suggesting vulnerability. The biggest recent shift is a slight +1pt uptick for the leader, likely driven by continued buzz but also countered by articles highlighting potential losses in other categories.
35 outcomes
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
The market is essentially flat with both listed candidates at 0% odds, but the biggest recent shift is the record-breaking performance of Christopher Nolan’s ‘The Odyssey’ in late July, which is not a market candidate — creating a glaring mismatch between box office reality and trader sentiment.
2 outcomes