How many "safe" Senate seats will Republicans win in 2026? (AL AR ID KY LA MS OK SD TN WV WY)
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: 11 at about a 78% chance — likely.
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
As of question writing, these are the 11 states that are listed as "safe" or "solid" Republican seats on Wikipedia by all four ratings columns. How many of them will the Republicans actually win? Based on a consensus of credible reporting, or certified results if consensus reporting is not available prior to that. Counting independent senators who have announced they intend to caucus with the Republicans. See also: @/EvanDaniel/how-many-safe-senate-seats-will-the
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