Will a movie grossing >$3B be released by 2028?
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 46% chance — a coin toss.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 46% right now.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
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The market expects Spider-Man: Brand New Day to fall short of a 92% Tomatometer score, with the 'Below 92%' option commanding 69% despite recent positive buzz from cast interviews suggesting a strong fan reception; the single biggest recent shift is a 1-point drop in the Yes (≥92%) probability over 24 hours, potentially reflecting skepticism after mixed reviews for other Marvel projects like 'The Punisher: One Last Kill' (Rotten Tomatoes, May 12).
2 outcomes
Oscar winner: Best Picture
The field is highly concentrated with The Odyssey at 56% and Dune: Part Three at 16%, but recent headlines question The Odyssey's ability to sweep, suggesting vulnerability. The biggest recent shift is a slight +1pt uptick for the leader, likely driven by continued buzz but also countered by articles highlighting potential losses in other categories.
35 outcomes
Big Brother Season 28 · Winner
The field is moderately concentrated with the top three at 42%, but the Week 2 Power of Veto result (July 23) likely boosted the winner's odds, keeping the race open as nine candidates sit above 5%.
17 outcomes