Will gay marriage be illegal in the United States during Trump's presidency.
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 3% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 3% right now.
Despite state-level legislative pushes and primary criticisms, the odds overwhelmingly favor no repeal of same-sex marriage during Trump's presidency, reflecting the strength of federal precedent and the lack of any coordinated national effort to overturn it.
📊 Base rate: Omitted (no defensible historical prior available based on provided data).
What's driving it
- • State-level actions like South Carolina lawmakers seeking to overturn same-sex marriage (KATV, Apr 3) and Pennsylvania's marriage equality bill (Advocate.com, Mar 26) show localized efforts, not a national wave.
- • Iowa Senate primary criticism of a congressman's vote for same-sex marriage (Iowa Capital Dispatch, May 29) indicates the issue remains politically divisive but not at a scale to change federal law.
- • No headline reports any federal legislative, executive, or judicial action to ban same-sex marriage, keeping the status quo intact.
- • The historical anniversary headlines (Live 5 News, Chicago Tribune, Jun 26) remind that Obergefell remains the law of the land, anchored by the 2022 Respect for Marriage Act.
The case for YES
- • Trump-appointed Supreme Court justices could form a majority to overturn Obergefell if a suitable case reaches the Court, as they have shown willingness to revisit precedent (e.g., Dobbs).
- • State-level efforts like South Carolina's (KATV, Apr 3) could signal a coordinated push for a national ban if conservatives gain unified federal control.
- • The Iowa primary criticism (Iowa Capital Dispatch, May 29) shows continued conservative opposition to same-sex marriage, suggesting pressure on GOP officials to act at the national level.
The case for NO
- • Obergefell v. Hodges (2015) is settled Supreme Court precedent, reinforced by the Respect for Marriage Act of 2022, making a federal ban legally very difficult to enact.
- • Public support for same-sex marriage remains high and stable across polls, discouraging politicians from pursuing a national ban.
- • State-level attempts to overturn same-sex marriage, like in South Carolina, have not succeeded, and even in conservative states such efforts face legal and legislative hurdles (KATV, Apr 3).
- • The Pennsylvania marriage equality bill (Advocate.com, Mar 26) shows some states are moving to codify protections, not roll them back.
What to watch
- • If the Supreme Court grants certiorari in a case directly challenging Obergefell in the upcoming term (starting October 2026), odds of Yes would rise significantly.
- • Any public statement or executive order from Trump explicitly calling for banning same-sex marriage would move odds toward Yes, likely as a campaign promise.
- • A federal bill to ban same-sex marriage being introduced in Congress with GOP leadership support would increase Yes probability, though passage remains unlikely.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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